One question modellers are keen to answer is how much Scotland can tell us about what might happen in England. When secondary schools in Scotland opened in mid- to late August, the percentage of students testing positive rose sharply. Depending on the age group, the rates peaked at 8-10% before cases started to fall. At the same time, in early September, national cases fell sharply. Daily cases in Scotland more than halved in a month.
England may follow suit in the weeks ahead, but there is uncertainty. Scotland was faster to vaccinate schoolchildren, so their immunity before returning to school may have been higher than for children in England. If the tide has started to turn in teenagers in England, the first sign may be a slowing of infections in the ONS data this Friday.
Not that that will be the end of it. Vaccines are good at preventing severe disease but do far less to stop the virus from spreading, and immunity is steadily waning, especially in vulnerable people. Meanwhile, children are the only ones close to pre-epidemic levels of contact with others. Adults have not returned to anything like previous levels of mixing, though it is starting to increase. To top it all, as Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, would say, “winter is coming”. All could drive further waves in infections.
Read more of our science editor Ian Sample’s analysis here: Deep within the UK’s shocking Covid data, there may be reasons for optimism
Source : https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/oct/21/coronavirus-news-live-india-administers-1bn-vaccine-doses-singapore-at-risk-of-being-overwhelmed-amid-record-deaths?page=with:block-61712aa08f083841e250be2e288